Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 14

Date: 5 December 2024, Thursday


	Urduliz		Basconia

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	1.87
	3.5	3.4	1.93
	3.4	3.48	1.89
	3.63	3.58	1.87	Watch
	4.02	3.5	1.77
	3.5	3.4	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↓ (4.84)	3.46 ↓ (3.6)	1.88 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Urduliz
25.4%

Draw
26.2%

Basconia
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

25.2%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

24.6%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Urduliz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Urduliz's performance.

Basconia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Basconia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Urduliz than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Urduliz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basconia than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Basconia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Urduliz - Basconia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, ⚽,
16', 0 - 2, ⚽,
27', 0 - 3, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Urduliz won 2.

Urduliz is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Basconia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Basconia is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Urduliz won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Urduliz won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Urduliz FT
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
30.11.24	Leioa - Urduliz	2:0 ✺
23.11.24	Urduliz - Aretxabaleta	2:3 ✺
17.11.24	San Viator - Urduliz	0:0 ✺
09.11.24	Urduliz - Portugalete	2:2 ✺
01.11.24	Eibar C - Urduliz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTTL
- CD Basconia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
30.11.24	Basconia - Lagun Onak	5:1 ✺
23.11.24	Alavés C - Basconia	1:2 ✺
17.11.24	Basconia - Derio	2:0 ✺
09.11.24	Santurtzi - Basconia	2:2 ✺
02.11.24	Basconia - Beasain	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
06.01.24	Urduliz - Basconia	2:1
11.02.23	Urduliz - Basconia	1:1
08.10.22	Basconia - Urduliz	4:3
23.01.22	Urduliz - Basconia	0:1
19.09.21	Basconia - Urduliz	0:2
17.01.21	Basconia - Urduliz	0:0
24.10.20	Urduliz - Basconia	0:0

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