Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 6 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Utiel		Castellonense

	1	X	2
	2.98	2.72	2.45
	3.04	2.73	2.48
	2.62	2.66	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.58)	2.7 ↑ (2.68)	2.62 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utiel
31.6%

Draw
33.6%

Castellonense
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

33.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

34.4%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Castellonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utiel than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Utiel - Castellonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utiel won 1.

Utiel has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castellonense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Utiel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Utiel won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Utiel won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Utiel - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 34.98%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Utiel
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
19.10.25	Ontinyent 1931 - Utiel	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Utiel - Villarreal C	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	La Nucía - Utiel	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Utiel - Crevillente Deportivo	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Soneja - Utiel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TLWTL
- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
19.10.25	Castellonense - Vall de Uxó	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Castellonense - Español de San Vicente	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Roda - Castellonense	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	Castellonense - Recambios Colón	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Torrellano - Castellonense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
07.06.25	Castellonense - Utiel	1:1 ET
01.06.25	Utiel - Castellonense	1:1
26.04.25	Castellonense - Utiel	1:0
15.12.24	Utiel - Castellonense	1:1
11.02.24	Utiel - Castellonense	1:1
24.09.23	Castellonense - Utiel	0:0

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