Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 9

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Intility Arena (Oslo)

Referee: Lien M. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2, TV2 Play


	Vålerenga		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	1.9	4	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.65	3.65	Watch
	1.93	4.15	3.84
	1.93	3.65	3.78	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.6
	1.92	3.85	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.97)	3.8 ↓ (4.02)	3.69 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vålerenga
49.5%

Draw
24.9%

Sarpsborg 08
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

23.8%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

24.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vålerenga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Sarpsborg 08 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vålerenga than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vålerenga will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vålerenga: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sarpsborg (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Sarpsborg (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hedvall O. (G) 6. Hedenstad V. 4. Olsen A. 37. Nasberg I. 2. Finnsson K. 8. Bjordal H. (C) 28. Westergaard M. 10. Lange C. 11. Sorensen E. 26. Thorvaldsen F. 77. Haren L.	1. Ndiaye M. (G) 12. Niyukuri C. 4. Utvik B. (C) 2. Koch M. 21. Hiim A. 6. Sher A. 8. Christiansen S. 10. Sorli S. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 33. Nibe A. 11. Karlsbakk D.
Substitutes
29. Ambina F. 17. Grundetjern M. 15. Holm O. T. 55. Jarl S. 9. Rajkovic G. 3. Sjatil H. 21. Sjoeng M. (G) 24. Strand P. 5. Tshiembe K.	26. Chriso 50. Eidal M. M. 18. Gueye B. 5. Odegaard M. 87. Oy L. (G) 20. Reinhardsen P. 81. Svenningsen Gronn M. 32. Wichne E. 17. Williams N.
Coaches
Myhre P.	Sel E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Thorvaldsen F. ⚽, Lange C. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Karlsbakk D. ⚽, Christiansen S. (A),
20', Sorensen E. (Penalty Awarded),
20', 2 - 1, Sorensen E. ⚽,
28', 2 - 2, Nibe A. ⚽, Niyukuri C. (A),
30', Olsen A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hedenstad V. ↓, Sjatil H. ↑,
64', Haren L. ↓, Grundetjern M. ↑,
64', Westergaard M. ↓, Holm O. T. ↑,
80', Niyukuri C. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
83', Nibe A. ↓, Gueye B. ↑,
83', Karlsbakk D. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
83', Sorensen E. ↓, Strand P. ↑,
88', Lange C. ↓, Ambina F. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Grundetjern M. ⚽, Strand P. (A),
90+3', Hiim A. ↓, Wichne E. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vålerenga won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Vålerenga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vålerenga might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Vålerenga: Ofkir M. (Knee Injury) Saeter O. (Injury)

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Camil Mmaee (Groin Injury) Carstensen F. (Injury) Opoku M. (Ankle Injury) Reinhardsen P. (Ankle Injury) Rosted S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Berget J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vålerenga won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:30. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Vålerenga won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:16. (average 2.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sarpsborg 08	22	7	7	8	28:31	-3	28
13	Valerenga	22	6	5	11	35:45	-10	23

Last Results with these Odds

Vålerenga - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 48.52%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vålerenga Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
08.05.26	Hamarkameratene - Vålerenga	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Vålerenga - KFUM-Kameratene Oslo	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Molde - Vålerenga	5:1 ✺
19.04.26	Vålerenga - Lillestrøm SK	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Fredrikstad - Vålerenga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLT
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
09.05.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Fredrikstad	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Lillestrøm SK - Sarpsborg 08	4:0 ✺
26.04.26	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Sarpsborg 08	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Tromsø	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Bodø Glimt	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
17.08.25	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	4:0
06.04.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	1:1
Club Friendly
01.02.25	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	1:0
09.03.24	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	5:3
Norwegian Eliteserien
05.11.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	3:2
16.04.23	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	0:2
Club Friendly
27.01.23	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	4:1

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