Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 8

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsborg)

Referee: Amland S. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2, TV2 Play


	Sarpsborg 08		Fredrikstad

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.75	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.7	3.2
	1.95	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.93	3.9	4
	1.9	3.77	3.85	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.75
	1.92	3.79	3.83	Watch
	1.91	3.7	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (1.96)	3.74 ↓ (3.85)	3.71 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 08
49.2%

Draw
25.3%

Fredrikstad
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

24.8%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

25.4%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Fredrikstad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fredrikstad than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Sarpsborg 08 - Fredrikstad Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fredrikstad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fredrikstad (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sarpsborg 08 will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fredrikstad (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ndiaye M. (G) 12. Niyukuri C. 4. Utvik B. (C) 2. Koch M. 21. Hiim A. 6. Sher A. 8. Christiansen S. 10. Sorli S. 11. Karlsbakk D. 33. Nibe A. 14. Berget J.	77. Borsheim M. (G) 4. Holme F. 12. Fredriksen U. 18. Norbye J. 16. Eid D. 6. Leach S. 24. Owusu L. 21. Shein R. R. 5. Rafn S. (C) 20. Ohlenschlaeger O. 13. Sorlokk S.
Substitutes
26. Chriso 50. Eidal M. M. 18. Gueye B. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 5. Odegaard M. 87. Oy L. (G) 81. Svenningsen Gronn M. 32. Wichne E. 17. Williams N.	3. Andresen A. 7. Faraas B. 19. Ghebreyohannes F. 15. Granaas E. 9. Laghzaoui S. 14. Nilsson M. 26. Nysveen J. 1. Ovretveit O. (G) 23. Skogvold H.
Coaches
Sel E.	Hagen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Berget J. ↓, Halvorsen V. E. ↑,
17', 0 - 1, Holme F. ⚽,
20', Koch M. 🟨,
30', Owusu L. 🟨,
36', Sorli S. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Halvorsen V. E. ⚽,
45+4', Ohlenschlaeger O. 🟨,
45+4', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
45+5', Shein R. R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Niyukuri C. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
65', Sher A. 🟨,
66', Leach S. ↓, Skogvold H. ↑,
79', Rafn S. ↓, Ghebreyohannes F. ↑,
79', Ohlenschlaeger O. ↓, Laghzaoui S. ↑,
82', Holme F. 🟨,
86', Karlsbakk D. ↓, Gueye B. ↑,
86', Nibe A. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
90+12', 2 - 1, Halvorsen V. E. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 0.

Sarpsborg has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fredrikstad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sarpsborg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Carstensen F. (Injury) Opoku M. (Ankle Injury) Reinhardsen P. (Ankle Injury) Rosted S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Fredrikstad: Kvile S. (Knee Injury) Nunez J. (Leg Injury) Owusu S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Camil Mmaee (Groin Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:12. (average 1.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarpsborg won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:5. (average 2.1:0.7).

Outrights of Norwegian Eliteserien for now

Fredrikstad: 0.1% Sarpsborg 08: 0.1%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Fredrikstad	21	8	4	9	25:32	-7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08	21	6	7	8	24:29	-5	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
03.05.26	Lillestrøm SK - Sarpsborg 08	4:0 ✺
26.04.26	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Sarpsborg 08	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Tromsø	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Bodø Glimt	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLTL
- Fredrikstad FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
02.05.26	Brann - Fredrikstad	3:1 ✺
25.04.26	Fredrikstad - Viking Stavanger	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Kristiansund - Fredrikstad	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Fredrikstad - Vålerenga	1:1 ✺
07.04.26	Aalesunds - Fredrikstad	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian NM Cup
08.03.26	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	2:1
Norwegian Eliteserien
08.11.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Fredrikstad	0:2
01.06.25	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	1:1
28.09.24	Sarpsborg 08 - Fredrikstad	0:1
13.04.24	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	2:2
Club Friendly
18.03.23	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	0:1
19.02.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Fredrikstad	2:1

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