Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 14

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday

Location: Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsborg)

Referee: Hansen T. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
World	Onefootball


	Sarpsborg 08		Rosenborg

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.35	3.7	2.65
	2.48	3.55	2.68	Watch
	2.58	3.65	2.73
	2.3	3.6	2.75
	2.5	3.61	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.73)	3.6 ↓ (3.79)	2.69 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 08
38.6%

Draw
26.3%

Rosenborg
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

25%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

24.4%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rosenborg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosenborg than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	42.3%	19.2%

Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Sarpsborg will win (votes: 9 - 36%). Rosenborg will win (votes: 5 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 44%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.5% – 63.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Sarpsborg (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Rosenborg (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Rosenborg (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ndiaye M. (G) 20. Reinhardsen P. 2. Koch M. 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 3. Jeahze M. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 8. Christiansen S. 23. Sandberg N. 14. Berget J. (C) 27. Orjasaeter S. 11. Karlsbakk D.	1. Tangvik S. (G) 16. Witry A. F. 38. Ceide M. K. 21. Nemcik T. 19. Pereira A. 6. Vaananen S. 10. Selnaes O. (C) 5. Zeidan M. 18. Holm N. 39. Islamovic D. 35. Ceide E. K.
Substitutes
17. Bruseth H. 19. Gudjohnsen S. 31. Jenssen H. (G) 26. Job D. 5. Odegaard M. 7. Sanyang A. 4. Skuseth N. 81. Svenningsen Gronn M. 10. Tangen H.	23. Jenssen U. 15. Mortensen J. 4. Racic L. 45. Reitan-Sunde J. 9. Saeter O. 12. Sandberg R. (G) 22. Sletsjoe H. 60. Slordal E. 50. Volden H.
Coaches
Michelsen C.	Johansson A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Islamovic D. ⚽, Ceide E. K. (A),
10', Vaananen S. 🟨,
20', 1 - 1, Karlsbakk D. (Pen),
34', 1 - 2, Witry A. F. ⚽, Holm N. (A),
45+7', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Halvorsen V. E. ↓, Bruseth H. ↑,
46', Reinhardsen P. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
51', Orjasaeter S. 🟨,
57', Pereira A. ↓, Jenssen U. ↑,
57', Nemcik T. 🟨,
64', Sandberg N. ↓, Sanyang A. ↑,
70', Holm N. ↓, Reitan-Sunde J. ↑,
70', Nemcik T. ↓, Racic L. ↑,
77', Witry A. F. 🟨,
81', Zeidan M. ↓, Sletsjoe H. ↑,
81', Ceide E. K. ↓, Saeter O. ↑,
85', Selnaes O. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Berget J. ⚽, Jeahze M. (A),
90+2', Sletsjoe H. 🟨,
90+3', Christiansen S. ↓, Tangen H. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 4.

Sarpsborg has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Rosenborg's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sarpsborg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Sher A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rosenborg: Fossum I. (Thigh Injury) Nypan S. (Inactive) Sahsah N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sarpsborg: Carstensen F. (Thigh Injury) Hiim A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:36. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarpsborg won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.9:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Rosenborg - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 40.26%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
13.07.25	Kristiansund - Sarpsborg 08	0:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
09.07.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Viking Stavanger	1:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
06.07.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Haugesund	3:1 ✺
29.06.25	Bodø Glimt - Sarpsborg 08	1:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.5 TWWWW
- Rosenborg BK
Norwegian Eliteserien
13.07.25	Rosenborg - Hamarkameratene	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Sandefjord - Rosenborg	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	Rosenborg - Viking Stavanger	1:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3 penalties ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
22.06.25	Kristiansund - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3 penalties
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.11.24	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	1:1
12.07.24	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	4:1
08.10.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	5:2
25.06.23	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	0:3
13.11.22	Rosenborg - Sarpsborg 08	2:3
18.04.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Rosenborg	1:1

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