Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Vigor Senigallia		Atletico Ascoli

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.10	2.90
	2.32	3.00	2.80
	2.37	2.94	2.86
	2.31	3.17	2.89	Watch
	2.30	2.90	2.80
	2.19	3.54	3.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.03)	3.11 ↑ (3.05)	2.88 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vigor Senigallia
39.6%

Draw
29.1%

Atletico Ascoli
31.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.7%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

30%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vigor Senigallia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vigor Senigallia's form might have worsened.

Atletico Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atletico Ascoli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Ascoli than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atletico Ascoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
37', 0 - 1, ⚽,
39', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie D - Group F Playoffs and 14th).

Vigor Senigallia has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Atletico Ascoli has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Vigor Senigallia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Vigor Senigallia has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:6 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Vigor Senigallia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals (averaging 0.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Vigor Senigallia	9	5	1	3	17:17	0	16
7	Atletico Ascoli	9	4	2	3	13:10	3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.10.26	Teramo - Vigor Senigallia	6:4 ✺
27.09.26	Vigor Senigallia - Fossombrone	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Termoli - Vigor Senigallia	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Vigor Senigallia - Giulianova	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Trestina - Vigor Senigallia	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTWWW
- Atletico Ascoli
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.10.26	Atletico Ascoli - Fossombrone	0:1 ✺
27.09.26	Giulianova - Atletico Ascoli	4:2 ✺
20.09.26	Atletico Ascoli - Trestina	1:0 ✺
16.09.26	L Aquila - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Atletico Ascoli - Maceratese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
12.04.26	Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli	2:2
30.11.25	Atletico Ascoli - Vigor Senigallia	2:1
13.04.25	Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli	0:0
03.03.24	Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli	0:1
29.10.23	Atletico Ascoli - Vigor Senigallia	1:2

Vigor Senigallia - Atletico Ascoli