Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 23

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Viimsi Staadion (Viimsi)


	Viimsi JK		Nõmme United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.8	2.7
	3.35	3.8	1.82	Watch
	3.37	3.87	1.82
	3.41	3.87	1.87	Watch
	3.46	3.8	1.83
	2.06	3.7	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.11)	3.81 ↓ (3.98)	2.1 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Viimsi JK
31.4%

Draw
24.4%

Nõmme United
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

22.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

21.6%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Viimsi JK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Viimsi JK's form might have worsened.

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nõmme United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Viimsi JK than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Viimsi JK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nõmme United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	7.1%	71.4%

Viimsi JK - Nõmme United Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Viimsi JK will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Nõmme United will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nõmme United: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nõmme United will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
56. Sapp M. (G) 20. Laidvee R. 25. Allast M. (C) 17. Seye M. A. 5. Ollik O. 43. Murage J. 22. Laidvee R. 38. Luts J. 10. Krimm N. 99. Vaherna M. 27. Magi K.	1. Lagus G. (G) 23. Laanelaid K. 55. Chanda R. 6. Palts M. 3. Merilai S. 92. Kokka K. 10. Frolov A. (C) 8. Vain B. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 20. Matas K. 9. Ounapuu E.
Substitutes
3. Jalle M. 33. Kane R. 96. Kollist J. T. 12. Lahe C. 42. Magi O. 50. Saar R. 77. Vahe R. 29. Valkna M. 1. Vigla G. (G)	4. Alteberg A. 7. Leppik R. 2. Leppsalu K. 12. Marmei M. 79. Ossep L. 71. Purg G. (G) 22. Radomskiy A. 13. Truuvaart A. 14. Vassiljev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Allast M. ⚽, Ollik O. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
89', Magi K. 🟥,
90+1', 1 - 1, Ounapuu E. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Viimsi JK won 1.

Viimsi JK is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nõmme United is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nõmme United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Viimsi JK won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Viimsi JK won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Viimsi JK
Estonian Esiliiga
04.08.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Viimsi JK	2:2 ✺
28.07.25	Viimsi JK - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:0 ✺
23.07.25	Viimsi JK - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Elva - Viimsi JK	0:3 ✺
14.07.25	Viimsi JK - FC Tallinn	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWW
- Nõmme United
Estonian Esiliiga
02.08.25	Nõmme United - Levadia Tallinn U21	0:2 ✺
28.07.25	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
21.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:0 ✺
17.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:1 ✺
12.07.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Nõmme United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
29.05.25	Viimsi JK - Nõmme United	1:0
13.03.25	Nõmme United - Viimsi JK	2:0
28.09.23	Nõmme United - Viimsi JK	0:0
03.07.23	Viimsi JK - Nõmme United	0:1
06.05.23	Nõmme United - Viimsi JK	2:1
08.04.23	Viimsi JK - Nõmme United	1:1
03.10.22	Viimsi JK - Nõmme United	0:2

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