Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Verde - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)


	Vila Nova		Brasiliense

	1	X	2
	2.08	3	3.5
	2.13	2.98	3.41
	2.13	3.06	3.44	Watch
	2.07	3.06	3.45
	2.08	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.65)	3.02 ↓ (3.36)	3.46 ↓ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
43.5%

Draw
30.2%

Brasiliense
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

27%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

27.6%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vila Nova's form might have worsened.

Brasiliense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brasiliense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vila Nova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasiliense than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brasiliense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vila Nova - Brasiliense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Tarta ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Joaozinho ⚽,
45+2', Felipe Garcia 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
84', 1 - 2, Lucas Sena ⚽,
86', 1 - 3, Douglas ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Recent matches Vila Nova is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Brasiliense is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vila Nova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Vila Nova will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vila Nova won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Vila Nova won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
15.02.25	Vila Nova - Inhumas	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
13.02.25	Brasiliense - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
11.02.25	Vila Nova - Goiatuba	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	ABECAT Ouvidorense - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
05.02.25	Goiânia - Vila Nova	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTTWL
- Brasiliense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
16.02.25	Sobradinho - Brasiliense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
13.02.25	Brasiliense - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
09.02.25	Brasiliense - Ceilandense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
06.02.25	Brasiliense - Capital CF Ltda	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
02.02.25	Ceilândia - Brasiliense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Verde
13.02.25	Brasiliense - Vila Nova	1:1
12.11.22	Vila Nova - Brasiliense	2:1
09.11.22	Brasiliense - Vila Nova	1:1
18.02.21	Brasiliense - Vila Nova	2:3 penalties
14.02.21	Vila Nova - Brasiliense	0:2

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