Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 5 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Vilassar de Mar		Peralada

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.95	2.65
	2.68	2.98	2.48
	2.85	3.1	2.46
	7.16	3.86	1.47	Watch
	2.88	2.8	2.45
	2.88	2.92	2.43
	2.83	3	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.26)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	2.34 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilassar de Mar
28.2%

Draw
30.9%

Peralada
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

29.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilassar de Mar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vilassar de Mar's form might have worsened.

Peralada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peralada's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilassar de Mar than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vilassar de Mar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peralada than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peralada, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vilassar de Mar - Peralada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
70', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vilassar de Mar won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Vilassar de Mar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Vilassar de Mar won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vilassar de Mar won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Peralada	4	1	2	1	5:3	2	5
18	Vilassar de Mar	5	1	0	4	3:13	-10	3

Last Results with these Odds

Vilassar de Mar - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 39.65%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UE Vilassar de Mar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
07.02.26	Vic - Vilassar de Mar	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Vilassar de Mar - LHospitalet	1:4 ✺
25.01.26	Manresa - Vilassar de Mar	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vilassar de Mar - CE Europa B	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Vilassar de Mar - Lleida	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLLTW
- CF Peralada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
08.02.26	Peralada - Mollerussa	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	San Cristóbal - Peralada	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Peralada - Cornellà	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Badalona - Peralada	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Montañesa - Peralada	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
05.10.25	Peralada - Vilassar de Mar	2:2
18.04.25	Vilassar de Mar - Peralada	0:2
08.12.24	Peralada - Vilassar de Mar	2:1
28.03.24	Vilassar de Mar - Peralada	2:1
12.11.23	Peralada - Vilassar de Mar	2:1
05.02.23	Vilassar de Mar - Peralada	1:1
09.10.22	Peralada - Vilassar de Mar	1:0

Vilassar de Mar - Peralada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide