Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 11

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Villegas		Peña Balsamaiso

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.45	3.3
	1.98	3.42	3.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.95)	3.44 ↓ (3.47)	3.3 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villegas
46.3%

Draw
26.3%

Peña Balsamaiso
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

26.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

22.5%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villegas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Peña Balsamaiso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villegas than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villegas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Balsamaiso than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Villegas - Peña Balsamaiso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Villegas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peña Balsamaiso's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Villegas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Villegas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Villegas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
02.11.25	Villegas - Berceo	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Villegas	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Villegas - Oyonesa	0:3 ✺
12.10.25	Pradejón - Villegas	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Haro Deportivo - Villegas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WLLLW
- Peña Balsamaiso
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
09.11.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Calahorra	0:7 ✺
02.11.25	Comillas - Peña Balsamaiso	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Vianés	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Arnedo - Peña Balsamaiso	5:0 ✺
12.10.25	Peña Balsamaiso - San Marcial	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLT

Villegas - Peña Balsamaiso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide