Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 5

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Arena Asia
Austria	Laola1
Brazil	Disney+
Germany	Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vitoria Guimarães		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.1	7.5	Watch
	1.47	4.20	6.50
	1.45	3.85	7.3	Watch
	1.49	4.26	7.66
	1.46	4.33	7.26	Watch
	1.46	4.2	7.55
	1.5	4.24	7.76	Watch
	1.45	4.15	6.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.68)	4.17 ↑ (3.73)	7.29 ↑ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
64.4%

Draw
22.6%

Casa Pia
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.3%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitoria Guimarães's performance.

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 23. Strata T. 28. Thiago Balieiro 5. Sidibe A. 13. Mendes J. 16. Mukendi B. 44. Doucet L. 17. Nogueira M. 20. Samu (C) 11. Gustavo 24. Ndoye A.	31. Gomes A. (G) 18. Geraldes A. (C) 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 75. Rosas P. 16. Clua S. 80. Ofori L. 19. Prieto K. 70. Rego J. 77. Pauwels B. 20. Jatta A.
Substitutes
19. Andersson V. 18. Arcanjo T. 7. Camara O. 22. Castillo J. (G) 82. Dias F. 9. Jakupovic A. 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 8. Nogueira G. 29. Ouotro P. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 56. Verdi S.	9. Araujo H. 90. Cassiano 59. Dafe A. 8. Gabi 4. Goulart J. 98. JP 95. Mandic I. (G) 17. Maurin E. 24. Perez S. 10. Rochinha 11. Salah M. 21. Zouin A.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Coelho F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Gomes A. ↓, Mandic I. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Prieto K. ↓, JP ↑,
57', Jatta A. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
57', Pauwels B. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
62', Gustavo 🟨,
62', Mandic I. 🟨,
63', Ndoye A. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
70', Kaly ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
71', Sidibe A. ↓, Rivas Viondi O. ↑,
71', Nogueira M. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
72', JP 🟨,
86', Thiago Balieiro 🟨,
87', Doucet L. ↓, Ouotro P. ↑,
87', Samu ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 1.

Guimarães has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Casa Pia is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Guimarães is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Guimarães: Gui (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Vitoria Guimaraes: 0.3% Casa Pia: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Vitoria Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5:10	-5	5
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.15%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
31.08.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLW
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
30.08.26	Casa Pia - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Gil Vicente - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:7 ✺
08.08.26	Marítimo - Casa Pia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Leixões - Casa Pia	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.05.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:1
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
01.03.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	1:0
28.09.24	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1
24.02.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:2
23.09.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
19.02.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0

Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide