Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 10
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vitoria Guimarães		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.80	5.00
	1.7	3.6	4.65	Watch
	1.65	4.05	5.74
	1.63	3.95	5.43	Watch
	1.6	4	5.65
	1.67	4.05	5.35	Watch
	1.61	3.85	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.71)	3.88 ↑ (3.77)	5.32 ↑ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
57.8%

Draw
24.4%

Nacional
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

24.9%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 23. Strata T. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 28. Thiago Balieiro 13. Mendes J. 44. Doucet L. 8. Nogueira G. 17. Nogueira M. 20. Samu (C) 11. Gustavo 24. Ndoye A.	1. Marin R. (G) 34. Leo Santos (C) 6. Matheus Dias 38. Ze Vitor 52. Wesley Gasolina 28. Liziero 22. Soares F. 7. Jensen M. 8. Baeza M. 10. Daniel Junior 99. Pablo Ruan
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 7. Camara O. 22. Castillo J. (G) 82. Dias F. 98. Lucas Furtado (G) 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 16. Mukendi B. 29. Ouotro P. 5. Sidibe A. 56. Verdi S.	88. Deivison 2. de la Cruz D. I. 20. Djalo M. 11. Gavriel S. 33. Goncalves C. 13. Joao Goncalves (G) 21. Kokolo W. 23. Mateus Iseppe 9. Obando A.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Joao Giao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Gustavo ⚽, Nogueira M. (A),
28', Nogueira G. 🟨,
38', Nogueira M. 🟨,
45+4', Margarido T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Samu (Penalty Awarded),
56', Wesley Gasolina ↓, de la Cruz D. I. ↑,
56', Baeza M. ↓, Kokolo W. ↑,
63', Doucet L. ↓, Mukendi B. ↑,
63', Nogueira M. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
68', Liziero ↓, Gavriel S. ↑,
72', Nogueira G. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
78', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
79', Jensen M. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
80', Matheus Dias ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
90+5', Daniel Junior 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2.

Nacional is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, Guimarães is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Jose Gomes (Inactive) Ulisses (Broken calfbone)

There are questionable in Nacional: Nourani M. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Vitoria Guimaraes: 0.51% Nacional: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.95%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
14.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWTL
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
16.08.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
10.08.26	Santa Clara - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Marítimo - Nacional	1:0 ✺
23.07.26	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	2:0 ✺
19.07.26	Tondela - Nacional	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTLL?

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.05.26	Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1
03.05.25	Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
23.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:2
26.04.21	Nacional - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
21.01.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	3:1
05.05.19	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:2

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