Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Mourao P. (Bra)


	Vitória Salvador		Confiança

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.7	7
	1.31	4.6	9.5
	1.39	4.05	6.9
	1.45	4.09	7.65
				Watch
	1.33	4.2	11
	1.5	3.82	7.24	Watch
	1.42	4.15	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.39)	4.09 ↑ (4.05)	7.98 ↑ (7.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
65.8%

Draw
22.6%

Confiança
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

22.3%

12.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

20.1%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitória Salvador that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Vitória Salvador - Confiança Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Vitória will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Confiança will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitória (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 27. Caceres R. 5. Lucas Halter (C) 43. Edu 3. Ze Marcos 66. Maykon Jesus 28. Ricardo Ryller 29. Willian Oliveira 10. Matheuzinho 11. Osvaldo 79. Renato Kayzer	1. Felipe Scheibig (G) 2. Valdir Junior 14. Valdo (C) 13. Renilson 16. Alan Cardoso 5. Luiz Otavio 8. Vitinho 10. Nicholas 11. Breiner C. 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Ronald Camarao
Substitutes
44. Baralhas 99. Carlinhos 2. Claudinho 26. Edenilson 33. Erick 35. Fintelman (G) 53. Kauan Vitor 38. Leo Pereira 22. Lucas Braga 52. Lucas Lohan 6. Pepe 41. Wendell	12. Allan (G) 15. Fabricio 17. Fabricio Pereira 30. Jeferson Souza (G) 4. Lucas Souza 3. Maicon 18. Matheusinho 20. Rafinha 19. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Ricardo Ryller 🟨,
42', Felipe Scheibig 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Osvaldo ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
46', Ze Marcos ↓, Erick ↑,
46', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Pepe ↑,
58', Nicholas ↓, Lucas Souza ↑,
73', Pepe 🟨,
77', Willian Oliveira ↓, Baralhas ↑,
77', Maykon Jesus ↓, Claudinho ↑,
84', Vitinho ↓, Rafinha ↑,
84', Neto Oliveira ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
90', Renilson ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
90', Alan Cardoso ↓, Maicon ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Rafinha ⚽, Thiago Santos (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 1.

Recent form of Vitória has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Confiança has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vitória may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vitória is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Vitória Salvador - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Corinthians - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTLLL
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
05.07.25	Confiança - ABC	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Figueirense - Confiança	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Ypiranga - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Juazeirense - Confiança	0:0 ✺
04.06.25	Confiança - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
22.05.22	Vitória Salvador - Confiança	3:0
Brazilian Serie B
09.10.21	Vitória Salvador - Confiança	0:1
10.07.21	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.03.21	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
04.12.20	Vitória Salvador - Confiança	2:3
01.09.20	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.03.19	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	2:2

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