Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 2

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira (Cernache do Bonjardim)


	Vitória de Sernache		Lajense

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	4.55
	1.75	3.29	4.59	Watch
	1.77	3.43	4.5
	1.72	3.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.44)	3.32 ↓ (3.8)	4.54 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória de Sernache
52.5%

Draw
27.4%

Lajense
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

23.7%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

22.8%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória de Sernache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória de Sernache's form might have worsened.

Lajense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lajense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória de Sernache, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lajense than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lajense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vitória de Sernache - Lajense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+4', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 10 in the zone Relegation).

Sernache is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lajense has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lajense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sernache is the clear favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
09.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Oliveira Hospital - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vitória de Sernache - Marinhense	4:0 ✺
05.10.25	SC Lusitânia - Vitória de Sernache	2:4 ✺
28.09.25	Vitória de Sernache - União da Serra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTWWW
- JD Lajense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
08.11.25	Lajense - Mortágua	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	União da Serra - Lajense	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Lajense - Fatima	0:1 ✺
12.10.25	Lajense - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	SB Castelo Branco - Lajense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLTT

Vitória de Sernache - Lajense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide