Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Warta Sieradz		Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.60	2.45
	2.25	3.5	2.52
	2.26	3.7	2.62
	2.3	3.57	2.64	Watch
	2.19	3.25	2.55
	2.32	4.11	2.64	Watch
	2.4	3.38	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.4)	3.59 ↑ (3.38)	2.55 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Warta Sieradz
39.5%

Draw
25.1%

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

26.2%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

26.4%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Warta Sieradz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Sieradz than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Warta Sieradz - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
72', 1 - 0, Bieronski B. ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 1, Szczutowski A. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 9th and 2nd in the Promotion - Division 2 Promotion - Playoffs).

In recent outings, Warta Sieradz has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Mazovia shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Warta Sieradz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	27:18	9	21
9	Warta Sieradz	10	4	3	3	18:16	2	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Warta Sieradz
Polish Division 3 - Group I
19.09.26	Warta Sieradz - Olimpia Zambrów	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Warta Sieradz	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Warta Sieradz - Olimpia Elbląg	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Warta Sieradz - Ząbkovia Ząbki	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TWWLL
- Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
26.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Widzew Łódź II - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Zambrów	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWWT

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