Match Info

National League - Championship Group - Round 8

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Location: Fraser Park (Lower Hutt)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Wellington Phoenix 2		Coastal Spirit

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.85	3.1	Watch
	1.85	4.17	3.45
	1.96	4.17	3.07	Watch
	1.92	3.84	3.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.93)	4.01 ↑ (4)	3.19 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix 2
48.2%

Draw
22.9%

Coastal Spirit
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

22.6%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

21.5%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Coastal Spirit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix 2 than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coastal Spirit than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Wellington Phoenix 2 - Coastal Spirit Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Coastal Spirit (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Coastal Spirit (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
76', (Pen),
83', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 10 and 11).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Coastal Spirit may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Including home match between the teams, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix 2
New Zealand National League
08.11.25	Western Springs - Wellington Phoenix 2	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Miramar Rangers	1:4 ✺
17.10.25	Auckland United - Wellington Phoenix 2	0:0 ✺
10.10.25	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Christchurch United	3:0 ✺
03.10.25	Auckland FC 2 - Wellington Phoenix 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LLTWL
- Coastal Spirit FC
New Zealand National League
08.11.25	Coastal Spirit - Miramar Rangers	1:3 ✺
31.10.25	Auckland United - Coastal Spirit	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Coastal Spirit - Christchurch United	0:0 ✺
17.10.25	Auckland FC 2 - Coastal Spirit	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Coastal Spirit - Wellington Olympic	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand National League
18.10.24	Wellington Phoenix 2 - Coastal Spirit	0:3

Wellington Phoenix 2 - Coastal Spirit: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide