Match Info

POLAND: Division 1 - Round 33

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Referee: Horozaniecki P. (Pol)


	Zagłębie Sosnowiec		Miedź Legnica

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	1.83
	3.3	3.4	1.98
	3.6	3.5	1.95
	3.92	3.46	2
	3.92	3.46	1.97
	3.4	3.4	1.91
	3.67	3.49	1.92
	3.5	3.45	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (2.82)	3.46 ↑ (3.05)	1.93 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
25.6%

Draw
26.6%

Miedź Legnica
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

28.8%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

26.7%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Zagłębie Sosnowiec's form might have worsened.

Miedź Legnica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miedź Legnica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Zagłębie Sosnowiec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miedź Legnica than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Miedź Legnica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Miedź Legnica Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Zagłębie Sosnowiec will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Miedź will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Miedź: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kos M. (G) 5. Lipka K. 44. Remy W. 27. Jonczy D. 23. Matynia H. 14. Bonecki S. 29. Rozwandowicz M. (C) 28. Bebenek K. 17. Valencia J. 97. Sokol D. 9. Bilinski K.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 17. Kostka M. 25. Mijuskovic N. (C) 6. Niewulis A. 23. Carolina J. 22. Kaczmarski I. 14. Drygas K. 66. Salvador I. 69. Michalik D. 10. Drzazga K. 98. Antonik K.
Substitutes
96. Calinski P. 7. Polyarus A. 1. Shevchenko O. (G) 3. Sukhotskyi A. 25. Szostek P. 88. Troc A. 80. Uchnast L. 77. Wrzesinski K. 19. Ziemann M.	31. Abramowicz M. (G) 18. Agbor E. 8. Aguado T. 87. Hoogenhout R. 30. Jozefiak K. 59. Lehaire M. 3. Leonczyk J. 95. Mansfeld M. 7. Pierzak P.
Coaches
Saganowski M.	Mamrot I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Bonecki S. 🟨,
39', Antonik K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 1, Antonik K. ⚽,
64', Antonik K. ↓, Mansfeld M. ↑,
65', Valencia J. ↓, Calinski P. ↑,
65', Bebenek K. ↓, Uchnast L. ↑,
68', Michalik D. ↓, Hoogenhout R. ↑,
70', Drzazga K. 🟨,
72', Rozwandowicz M. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Bilinski K. (Pen),
78', Drygas K. 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Mansfeld M. ⚽, Salvador I. (A),
88', Salvador I. ↓, Lehaire M. ↑,
88', Remy W. ↓, Troc A. ↑,
88', Drygas K. ↓, Aguado T. ↑,
88', Bilinski K. ↓, Polyarus A. ↑,
88', Lipka K. ↓, Szostek P. ↑,
90', Jonczy D. 🟨,
90+5', Sokol D. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 10).

Zagłębie Sosnowiec is Relegated to Division 2

Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 0.

Zagłębie Sosnowiec is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Miedź is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Miedź will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 20-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Sosnowiec won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Polish Division 1
12.05.24	Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:0 ✺
06.05.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Wisła Kraków	1:1 ✺
27.04.24	GKS Tychy - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:0 ✺
23.04.24	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Stal Rzeszów	0:1 ✺
19.04.24	Polonia Warsaw - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTLLT
- Miedź Legnica
Polish Division 1
13.05.24	Miedź Legnica - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	6:1 ✺
04.05.24	Resovia Rzeszów - Miedź Legnica	1:1 ✺
28.04.24	Miedź Legnica - Znicz Pruszków	1:2 ✺
24.04.24	Wisła Płock - Miedź Legnica	2:1 ✺
21.04.24	Miedź Legnica - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
26.11.23	Miedź Legnica - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:0
26.04.22	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Miedź Legnica	1:2
16.10.21	Miedź Legnica - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	4:0
13.06.21	Miedź Legnica - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:1
12.12.20	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Miedź Legnica	0:2
29.02.20	Miedź Legnica - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:2
17.08.19	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Miedź Legnica	1:0

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