Match Info

III Liga - Group II - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Zdzisław Krzyszkowiak Stadium (Bydgoszcz)


	Zawisza Bydgoszcz		Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.6	5.25
	1.29	4.95	7.7
	1.31	4.92	8.19
	1.34	4.83	7.46	Watch
	1.26	5.15	8.95	Watch
	1.52	4.7	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.5)	4.86 ↑ (4.18)	7.05 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
68%

Draw
18.9%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

21.7%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

21.1%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zawisza Bydgoszcz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zawisza Bydgoszcz's performance.

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zawisza Bydgoszcz than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zawisza Bydgoszcz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Cywinski M. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Szramowski L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 3 - 0, Cywinski M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 2 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zawisza won 3.

Zawisza is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Nowe Skalmierzyce has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Zawisza is considered a favorite.

We predict that Zawisza will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Zawisza won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 24:8. (average 3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Zawisza won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 2.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Polish Division 3 - Group II
05.09.25	Unia Swarzędz - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Kluczevia Stargard	4:2 ✺
27.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin II - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Września	2:0 ✺
15.08.25	Noteć Czarnków - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTWW
- Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Polish Division 3 - Group II
07.09.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Wda Świecie	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Września - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:3 ✺
27.08.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Elana Toruń	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo	0:0 ✺
15.08.25	Unia Swarzędz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group II
21.05.25	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	3:2
26.10.24	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0:4
20.04.24	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	3:1
23.09.23	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	2:2
18.03.23	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:2
17.08.22	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0:4
27.04.22	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0:3

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