Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadionul Zimbru (Chişinău) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Van Driessche B. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Kazakhstan	23:00	Qazsport


	Zimbru Chişinău		Astana

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.73	Watch
	4.1	3.5	1.77
	4.5	3.3	1.8	Watch
	4.68	3.4	1.8
	3.93	3.30	1.95	Watch
	5.05	3.47	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.55	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↑ (3.52)	3.43 ↑ (3.31)	1.81 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zimbru Chişinău
21.4%

Draw
27.2%

Astana
51.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

26.4%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zimbru Chişinău has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zimbru Chişinău than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	26.3%	63.2%

Zimbru Chişinău - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Zimbru will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Astana will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Astana: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Zimbru (votes: 2 - 40%). Astana (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Zimbru (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Zimbru (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Zimbru (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Astana (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Cebotari N. (G) 35. Zolotov N. 3. Burghiu S. (C) 33. Stefan M. 29. Dosso A. 2. Rodrigues D. 23. Paz B. 44. Ranera I. 17. Clescenco N. 8. Sharkovskiy T. 15. Kozlovskiy D.	93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 5. Kazukolovas K. 3. Kalaica B. 45. Amanovic A. 6. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 8. Basic I. 77. Gripshi N. 28. Camara O. 9. Geoffrey C.
Substitutes
12. Agachi S. (G) 18. Covali N. 9. Dahan G. 45. Ebikabowei M. 19. Fratea V. 24. Gaya J. 30. Macritchii A. 5. Matteo Amoroso 21. Radu L. 25. Shchebetun O. 11. Stina V.	71. Anuarov S. 72. Basmanov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 4. Bystrov M. 11. Camaj D. 7. Ebong M. 81. Karimov R. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 22. Marochkin A. 74. Seysen M. (G) 18. Shomko D. 14. Zhaksylykov N.
Coaches
Kubarev O.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Geoffrey C. ⚽,
21', 0 - 2, Camara O. ⚽, Tomasov M. (A),
34', Sharkovskiy T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigues D. ↓, Stina V. ↑,
46', Sharkovskiy T. ↓, Fratea V. ↑,
56', Fratea V. 🟨,
60', Clescenco N. ↓, Dahan G. ↑,
60', Stefan M. ↓, Gaya J. ↑,
63', Geoffrey C. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
63', Gripshi N. ↓, Ebong M. ↑,
78', Kozlovskiy D. ↓, Shchebetun O. ↑,
82', Camara O. ↓, Marochkin A. ↑,
82', Amanovic A. ↓, Beysebekov A. ↑,
85', Condric J. ↓, Seysen M. ↑,
90+3', Seysen M. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Zimbru is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Astana has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Zimbru may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Zimbru has had a series of away games.

In this match, Astana is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Zimbru won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zimbru Chişinău
Moldovan Super Liga
27.07.25	Sheriff Tiraspol - Zimbru Chişinău	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Astana - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1 ✺
Moldovan Super Liga
19.07.25	Bălți - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Sparta Selemet - Zimbru Chişinău	0:6 ✺
06.07.25	Dacia Buiucani - Zimbru Chişinău	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WTTWW
- FC Astana
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Astana - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.25	Astana - Turan Turkistan	7:0 ✺
13.07.25	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Zhetysu - Astana	0:2 ✺
29.06.25	Astana - Kyzylzhar	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Astana - Zimbru Chişinău	1:1

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