Match Info

Ligue Professionnelle 1 - Round 26

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Olympique de Sousse (Sousse)

Where to Watch on TV:


Tunisia	Diwan Sport


	Étoile du Sahel		Marsa

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.5	6.1
	1.5	3.65	6.85
	1.49	3.66	6.92	Watch
	1.5	3.3	6.5
	1.46	3.65	7.01	Watch
	1.63	3.35	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.63)	3.52 ↑ (3.35)	6.4 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile du Sahel
60%

Draw
25.8%

Marsa
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.8%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

19.4%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile du Sahel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Marsa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile du Sahel than the current prediction. (-20.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Étoile du Sahel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsa than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marsa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Étoile du Sahel - Marsa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ben Hessen S. (G) 8. Abid O. 30. Anane R. 19. Bouslama M. 9. Chaabani M. 33. Dagdoug H. 6. Gbo C. 5. Hnid N. 21. Kechrida W. 3. Naouali G. 11. Senghor M.	23. Helal S. (G) 21. Adejoh O. 5. Arfaoui Y. 28. Ben Hamida A. 2. Chaouch M. 25. Dao Y. 15. Gneba R. 3. Hichri H. 10. Iffia F. 17. Jebali O. 27. Khaloui M.
Substitutes
20. Ben Abdallah Y. 29. Ben Amor M. 25. Ben Choug F. 10. Ben Seghaier M. 26. Boutmene Z. . Ferjani N. 22. Horchani A. 39. Landolsi M. (G) 17. Smichi N.	7. Hammami K. 24. Mansour H. 14. Moslem M. 29. Neji F. 1. Soltani A. (G) 13. Traidi M. 11. Traidi O. 26. Victorino Polaco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Chaabani M. ⚽,
68', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
86', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile du Sahel won 5.

In recent matches, Étoile du Sahel has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marsa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Étoile du Sahel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Étoile du Sahel is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Étoile du Sahel won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:2. (average 2.1:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Étoile du Sahel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 1.7:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Etoile Sahel	4	1	1	2	5:6	-1	4
11	AS Marsa	4	1	1	2	2:3	-1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile du Sahel
Tunisian Cup
19.04.26	Stade Gabèsien - Étoile du Sahel	4:3 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
11.04.26	Olympique Béja - Étoile du Sahel	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Stade Tunisien - Étoile du Sahel	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Étoile du Sahel - Soliman	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLTTW
- AS Marsa Tunisia
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
13.04.26	Métlaoui - Marsa	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Marsa - Olympique Béja	1:0 ✺
Tunisian Cup
22.03.26	Bizertin - Marsa	3:2 penalties ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
07.03.26	Espérance ST - Marsa	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Marsa - Stade Tunisien	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
29.10.25	Marsa - Étoile du Sahel	0:2
12.06.16	Marsa - Étoile du Sahel	0:3
06.01.16	Étoile du Sahel - Marsa	3:0
12.05.15	Marsa - Étoile du Sahel	1:3
24.12.14	Étoile du Sahel - Marsa	2:0
09.02.14	Marsa - Étoile du Sahel	1:2
06.10.13	Étoile du Sahel - Marsa	0:0

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