Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 10 (Tunisia), hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday


	Abel Forger		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	1.9	1.78
	1.97	1.78	Watch
	2	1.73
	1.91	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.25)	1.77 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Abel Forger
47.6%

Luca Castagnola
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Abel Forger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Abel Forger's performance.

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castagnola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Abel Forger than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Abel Forger that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castagnola could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Abel Forger - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Forger is ranked ATP: 955. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 717.

Right away both players are in a satisfying form.

Castagnola will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Castagnola to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Abel Forger
ITF Tournaments
14.03.25	Abel Forger - Maxim Mrva	2:1 ✺
13.03.25	Abel Forger - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
12.03.25	Luca Potenza - Abel Forger	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Abel Forger - Tadeas Paroulek	0:2 ✺
05.03.25	Radu David Turcanu - Abel Forger	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWWLW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
14.03.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
13.03.25	Fabien Salle - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Giannicola Misasi - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
07.03.25	Thomas Deschamps - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
05.03.25	Luca Castagnola - Denis Klok	Klok D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWL?

Abel Forger - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide