Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sarreguemines, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Adan Freire Da Silva		Matt Ponchet

	1	2
			Watch
	1.8	1.9	Watch
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.8	1.9	Watch
	1.75	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.57)	1.88 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adan Freire Da Silva
51.1%

Matt Ponchet
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adan Freire Da Silva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adan Freire Da Silva's form might have worsened.

Matt Ponchet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matt Ponchet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adan Freire Da Silva than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adan Freire Da Silva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matt Ponchet than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matt Ponchet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Adan Freire Da Silva - Matt Ponchet Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Freire Da Silva is ranked ATP: 925. Ponchet is ranked ATP: 1620.

Freire Da Silva has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ponchet is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Freire Da Silva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Freire Da Silva could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adan Freire Da Silva
ITF Tournaments
24.10.25	Adrian Oetzbach - Adan Freire Da Silva	0:2 ✺
23.10.25	Adan Freire Da Silva - Kai Wehnelt	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka - Adan Freire Da Silva	0:2 ✺
14.10.25	Robin Catry - Adan Freire Da Silva	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Stefan Seifert - Adan Freire Da Silva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLL
- Matt Ponchet
ITF Tournaments
24.10.25	Nicolas Parizzia - Matt Ponchet	0:2 ✺
23.10.25	Calvin Mueller - Matt Ponchet	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Matt Ponchet - Maxence Beauge	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Robin Catry - Matt Ponchet	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Damien Clerc - Matt Ponchet	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWLW

Adan Freire Da Silva - Matt Ponchet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide