Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Grodzisk Mazowiecki, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday


	Alejandro Moro Canas		Alexander Donski

	1	2
			Watch
	1.22	3.80
	1.23	3.75
	1.28	4.06
	1.22	3.84	Watch
	1.24	4.00	Watch
	1.23	3.74	Watch
	1.23	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.32)	3.85 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Moro Canas
75.7%

Alexander Donski
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.5%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Moro Canas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alejandro Moro Canas's performance.

Alexander Donski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexander Donski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Alejandro Moro Canas - Alexander Donski Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 236. Donski is ranked ATP: 551.

Moro Canas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Donski is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Donski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Moro Canas is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
04.08.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Robin Bertrand	2:0 ✺
24.07.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Oliver Crawford	0:2 ✺
23.07.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Ivan Marrero Curbelo	2:0 ✺
21.07.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Massimo Giunta	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
25.06.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Soon Woo Kwon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWWL
- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
04.08.26	Alexander Donski - Takuya Kumasaka	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Alexander Donski - Nitin Kumar Sinha	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Alexander Donski - Kenny De Schepper	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Alexander Donski - Max Hans Rehberg	0:2 ✺
20.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLW

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