Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Zaragoza, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Alejandro Moro Canas		Sander Jong

	1	2
			Watch
	1.42	2.60
	1.5	2.41	Watch
	1.43	2.58	Watch
	1.45	2.68
	1.41	2.63	Watch
	1.53	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.52)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Moro Canas
63.5%

Sander Jong
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Moro Canas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Sander Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Moro Canas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sander Jong than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sander Jong could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alejandro Moro Canas - Sander Jong Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 230., and Jong is ranked ATP: 530..

Moro Canas is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Jong have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Jong may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Moro Canas is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Moro Canas - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.03%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Moro Canas
ITF Tournaments
02.10.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Pedro Vives Marcos	2:0 ✺
01.10.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Bruno Pujol Navarro	Pujol Navarro B. Retired ✺
30.09.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - David Naharro	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.09.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 W?WLW
- Sander Jong
ITF Tournaments
02.10.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Sander Jong	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Michiel De Krom - Sander Jong	1:2 ✺
30.09.26	Roberto Perez Socas - Sander Jong	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Gerard Campana Lee - Sander Jong	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Lilian Marmousez - Sander Jong	Marmousez L. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWL?

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