Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Todi, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday


	Alex Barrena		Lukas Neumayer

	1	2
			Watch
	2.90	1.36
	2.63	1.46	Watch
	3.04	1.44
	2.63	1.43	Watch
	3.00	1.40
	2.85	1.37	Watch
	2.80	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.9)	1.41 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
33.2%

Lukas Neumayer
66.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

73%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Lukas Neumayer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Barrena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lukas Neumayer could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alex Barrena - Lukas Neumayer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 261. Neumayer is ranked ATP: 169.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Neumayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Neumayer is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barrena won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Lukas Neumayer - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.24%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
13.08.26	Alex Barrena - Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi	2:0 ✺
11.08.26	Alex Barrena - Georgii Kravchenko	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Henri Squire - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Alex Barrena - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Jan Choinski - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWL
- Lukas Neumayer
ATP Challenger
13.08.26	Daniel Michalski - Lukas Neumayer	1:2 ✺
11.08.26	Alexander Weis - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
20.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
01.02.23	Alex Barrena - Lukas Neumayer	2:1

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