Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: San Marino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday


	Francesco Maestrelli		Lukas Neumayer

	1	2
	3.00	1.36	Watch
	2.75	1.40
	2.95	1.38
	3.02	1.42
	2.65	1.42	Watch
	2.85	1.36	Watch
	2.89	1.36	Watch
	2.90	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.73)	1.38 ↓ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
32.4%

Lukas Neumayer
67.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Lukas Neumayer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Francesco Maestrelli - Lukas Neumayer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 149. Neumayer is ranked ATP: 172.

Maestrelli has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Neumayer's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neumayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
30.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Max Basing	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.06.26	Alexis Galarneau - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
09.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
02.06.26	Remy Bertola - Francesco Maestrelli	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 LLLL?
- Lukas Neumayer
ATP Kitzbuhel
20.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Marko Topo	0:2 ✺
11.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Mili Poljicak	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.07.26	Lukas Neumayer - Henri Squire	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL

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