Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Alexander Bublik		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.40	1.56
	2.40	1.57	Watch
	2.32	1.58	Watch
	2.45	1.57
	2.40	1.59	Watch
	2.40	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.63)	1.57 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
39.6%

Jakub Mensik
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Mensik will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Mensik (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Bublik (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Mensik (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 20., and Mensik is ranked ATP: 14..

Performances by Mensik have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bublik could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Mensik is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Bublik has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:6 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Jakub Mensik - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.68%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Rafael Jodar - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Alexander Bublik - Jeffrey John Wolf	3:1 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
25.07.26	Alexander Bublik - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWWL
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
19.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Ben Shelton	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
05.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Learner Tien	2:3 ✺
03.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Jurij Rodionov	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
29.04.25	Jakub Mensik - Alexander Bublik	2:0
ATP Rotterdam
04.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Jakub Mensik - Alexander Bublik	2:3

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