Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday


	Alexander Donski		Garrett Johns

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.79	2.11
	1.76	1.95	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.76	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.22)	1.93 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Donski
51.6%

Garrett Johns
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Donski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Donski's performance.

Garrett Johns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Garrett Johns might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Donski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Garrett Johns than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Garrett Johns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Alexander Donski - Garrett Johns Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Donski will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Johns will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Donski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Donski is ranked ATP: 779. Johns is ranked ATP: 325.

Donski has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Johns is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Johns may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Johns could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Alexander Donski - Nicholas David Ionel	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Samuele Pieri - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	David Jorda Sanchis - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Denis Yevseyev - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Alexander Donski - S D Prajwal Dev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLLW
- Garrett Johns
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Garrett Johns	2:1 ✺
09.02.26	Christian Langmo - Garrett Johns	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Tristan Boyer - Garrett Johns	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Patrick Kypson - Garrett Johns	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Karl Poling - Garrett Johns	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Alexander Donski - Garrett Johns: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide