Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Andrew Paulson		Carlos Sanchez Jover

	1	2
			Watch
	2.01	1.72	Watch
	2.13	1.75
	2.08	1.67	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.02	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.64)	1.71 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrew Paulson
45.5%

Carlos Sanchez Jover
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

65%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

71.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrew Paulson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Andrew Paulson's performance.

Carlos Sanchez Jover has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Sanchez Jover might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrew Paulson than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrew Paulson that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Sanchez Jover than the current prediction. (+16.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Sanchez Jover could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Andrew Paulson - Carlos Sanchez Jover Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paulson is ranked ATP: 642. Sanchez Jover is ranked ATP: 347.

Recent performances by Paulson have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sanchez Jover is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paulson may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sanchez Jover might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrew Paulson
ATP Challenger
03.04.26	Sergio Callejon Hernando - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
02.04.26	Fabrizio Andaloro - Andrew Paulson	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Andrew Paulson	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Andrew Paulson - Samuele Pieri	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Andrew Paulson - Rudolf Molleker	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWWL
- Carlos Sanchez Jover
ITF Tournaments
02.04.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Sergi Fita Juan	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Oscar Jose Gutierrez	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:0 ✺
17.03.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWLLL

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