Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday


	Andrey Chepelev		Gianmarco Ferrari

	1	2
			Watch
	1.53	2.30
	1.48	2.45
	1.54	2.46
	1.56	2.24	Watch
	1.53	2.45
	1.49	2.45	Watch
	1.50	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.61)	2.39 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Chepelev
61.1%

Gianmarco Ferrari
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Chepelev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Gianmarco Ferrari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrey Chepelev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gianmarco Ferrari than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gianmarco Ferrari could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Andrey Chepelev - Gianmarco Ferrari Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Chepelev is ranked ATP: 383. Ferrari is ranked ATP: 517.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Ferrari may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chepelev might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Chepelev won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Chepelev
ATP Challenger
06.09.26	Andrey Chepelev - Jeremy Gschwendtner	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Andrey Chepelev - Fausto Tabacco	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Andrey Chepelev - Niccolo Ciavarella	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.08.26	Andrey Chepelev - Henry Bernet	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Andrey Chepelev - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLW
- Gianmarco Ferrari
ATP Challenger
06.09.26	Francesco Ferrari - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Andrea Colombo - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
18.08.26	Gianmarco Ferrari - Samuele Seghetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.08.26	Gianmarco Ferrari - Mykyta Mashtakov	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Gianmarco Ferrari - Edoardo Betti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
07.10.25	Andrey Chepelev - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0
18.06.22	Andrey Chepelev - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0

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