Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cary (USA), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 August 2024, Monday

Referee: Haigh R. (Gbr)


	Aslan Karatsev		Francesco Passaro

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.4	2.7	Watch
	1.36	2.9	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.36	3.03	Watch
	1.36	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.61)	2.93 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aslan Karatsev
68.2%

Francesco Passaro
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aslan Karatsev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aslan Karatsev's performance.

Francesco Passaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francesco Passaro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aslan Karatsev than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aslan Karatsev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francesco Passaro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aslan Karatsev - Francesco Passaro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Karatsev is ranked ATP: 100. Passaro is ranked ATP: 149.

Recent matches Karatsev is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Passaro is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Passaro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Karatsev will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Karatsev won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Passaro - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.22%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aslan Karatsev
ATP Montreal
04.08.24	Aslan Karatsev - Roberto Bautista-Agut	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
29.07.24	Aslan Karatsev - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
ATP Atlanta
25.07.24	Aslan Karatsev - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
23.07.24	Aslan Karatsev - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.24	Aslan Karatsev - Karen Khachanov	Karatsev A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLW?
- Francesco Passaro
ATP Bastad
16.07.24	Taro Daniel - Francesco Passaro	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
10.07.24	Enrico Dalla Valle - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
24.06.24	Mark Lajal - Francesco Passaro	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.06.24	Daniel Altmaier - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
13.06.24	Franco Agamenone - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 ?LLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marrakech
03.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Francesco Passaro	1:2

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