Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Mark Lajal		Francesco Passaro

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.71	2.02
	1.74	2.04	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.75	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 (1.73)	2.04 ↓ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mark Lajal
54%

Francesco Passaro
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mark Lajal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Francesco Passaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Lajal than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Mark Lajal - Francesco Passaro Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lajal is ranked ATP: 149. Passaro is ranked ATP: 140.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Passaro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lajal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Mark Lajal - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.23%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mark Lajal
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	James McCabe - Mark Lajal	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Mark Lajal - Justin Engel	Engel J. walkover ✺
19.11.25	Mark Lajal - Alexey Vatutin	2:1 ✺
17.11.25	Mark Lajal - Luka Mikrut	Canceled ✺
12.11.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Mark Lajal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 L?W?L
- Francesco Passaro
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Francesco Passaro - Marko Topo	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	Francesco Passaro - Lorenzo Sciahbasi	2:0 ✺
18.11.25	Francesco Passaro - Michele Ribecai	2:0 ✺
18.11.25	Francesco Passaro - Marco Cecchinato	Canceled ✺
11.11.25	Liam Broady - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
24.06.24	Mark Lajal - Francesco Passaro	2:1

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