Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	August Holmgren		Henrique Rocha

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.85	1.36
	2.63	1.46	Watch
	2.74	1.41	Watch
	2.90	1.43
	2.69	1.41	Watch
	2.55	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.6)	1.42 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
34.4%

Henrique Rocha
65.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

August Holmgren - Henrique Rocha Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Holmgren will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Rocha will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rocha (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 245., and Rocha is ranked ATP: 127..

In recent outings, Holmgren has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rocha shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Holmgren could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Rocha is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Rocha in today's match, at odds of 1.41.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Henrique Rocha - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.52%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
01.10.26	August Holmgren - Andrea Guerrieri	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Benjamin Bonzi - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	August Holmgren - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	August Holmgren - Felix Balshaw	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Andrea Guerrieri - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLLL
- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
01.10.26	Mili Poljicak - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
29.09.26	Cezar Cretu - Henrique Rocha	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Henrique Rocha - Dusan Lajovic	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Henrique Rocha - Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Henrique Rocha - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWW

August Holmgren - Henrique Rocha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide