Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2025, Monday


	August Holmgren		Otto Virtanen

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	2.85	1.35	Watch
	3.27	1.32	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	3.15	1.33	Watch
	2.85	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.33)	1.33 ↓ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
30.2%

Otto Virtanen
69.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that August Holmgren's form might have worsened.

Otto Virtanen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Otto Virtanen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for August Holmgren, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Otto Virtanen than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Otto Virtanen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

August Holmgren - Otto Virtanen Predictions

Users Predictions: Otto Virtanen will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Otto Virtanen will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 202. Virtanen is ranked ATP: 135.

Recent matches Holmgren is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Virtanen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Holmgren could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Virtanen will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
11.03.25	August Holmgren - Govind Nanda	N/A ✺
27.02.25	Hynek Barton - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
25.02.25	Enrico Dalla Valle - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
17.02.25	August Holmgren - Dalibor Svrcina	1:2 ✺
11.02.25	August Holmgren - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 ?LWLL
- Otto Virtanen
ATP Marrakech
02.04.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Daniel Altmaier - Otto Virtanen	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
17.03.25	Alexander Blockx - Otto Virtanen	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Otto Virtanen - James McCabe	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
23.02.25	Roman Safiullin - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLL

August Holmgren - Otto Virtanen: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide