Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Toulouse-Balma (France), hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 March 2025, Friday


	Axel Garcian		Egor Gerasimov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.5	1.45
	2.23	1.61	Watch
	2.18	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.99)	1.56 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Axel Garcian
40.4%

Egor Gerasimov
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

70%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Axel Garcian has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Axel Garcian's performance.

Egor Gerasimov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Egor Gerasimov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Axel Garcian than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Axel Garcian that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Egor Gerasimov than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Egor Gerasimov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Axel Garcian - Egor Gerasimov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Garcian is ranked ATP: 695. Gerasimov is ranked ATP: 394.

Recent matches Garcian is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gerasimov is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Garcian could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Gerasimov is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Gerasimov to win the game is with odds 1.37.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Garcian won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Axel Garcian
ITF Tournaments
20.03.25	Marvin Moeller - Axel Garcian	1:2 ✺
18.03.25	Axel Garcian - Evan Jarzaguet	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.03.25	Egor Gerasimov - Axel Garcian	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.02.25	Oliver Bonding - Axel Garcian	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Hamish Stewart - Axel Garcian	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLLW
- Egor Gerasimov
ITF Tournaments
20.03.25	David Poljak - Egor Gerasimov	1:2 ✺
18.03.25	Julien Dando - Egor Gerasimov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.03.25	Egor Gerasimov - Arthur Fery	1:2 ✺
10.03.25	Egor Gerasimov - Naoya Honda	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Egor Gerasimov - Axel Garcian	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.03.25	Egor Gerasimov - Axel Garcian	2:0

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