Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Miyazaki - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Axel Nefve		Koki Matsuda

	1	2
			Watch
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.25	1.33
	3.15	1.31	Watch
	2.58	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.58)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Axel Nefve
30.7%

Koki Matsuda
69.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

64.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Axel Nefve has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Koki Matsuda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Axel Nefve than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Axel Nefve, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Koki Matsuda than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Koki Matsuda, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Axel Nefve - Koki Matsuda Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Matsuda will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Preview

Nefve is ranked ATP: 810. Matsuda is ranked ATP: 530.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Matsuda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Matsuda might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Axel Nefve - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.18%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Axel Nefve
ITF Tournaments
26.03.26	Emile Hudd - Axel Nefve	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Kousuke Ogura - Axel Nefve	0:2 ✺
18.03.26	Hunter Heck - Axel Nefve	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Axel Nefve - Kousuke Ogura	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Shinji Hazawa - Axel Nefve	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWL
- Koki Matsuda
ATP Challenger
21.03.26	Fajing Sun - Koki Matsuda	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.03.26	Noah Zamora - Koki Matsuda	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Yuto Oki - Koki Matsuda	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Jumpei Yamasaki - Koki Matsuda	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Koki Matsuda - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWWW

Axel Nefve - Koki Matsuda: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide