Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Yokkaichi - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Fajing Sun		Koki Matsuda

	1	2
			Watch
	1.52	2.35	Watch
	1.56	2.5
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.54	2.32	Watch
	1.8	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.8)	2.31 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fajing Sun
59.4%

Koki Matsuda
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fajing Sun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fajing Sun's performance.

Koki Matsuda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Koki Matsuda might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Koki Matsuda than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Fajing Sun - Koki Matsuda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sun is ranked ATP: 264. Matsuda is ranked ATP: 530.

Sun has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Matsuda is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sun may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Fajing Sun - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.41%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ITF Tournaments
18.03.26	Fajing Sun - Chase Ferguson	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Fajing Sun - Aaron Gabet	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.02.26	Blake Ellis - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Fajing Sun - Blake Ellis	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Fajing Sun - David Jorda Sanchis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLLW
- Koki Matsuda
ITF Tournaments
12.03.26	Noah Zamora - Koki Matsuda	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Yuto Oki - Koki Matsuda	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Jumpei Yamasaki - Koki Matsuda	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Koki Matsuda - Andre Ilagan	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Koki Matsuda - Pawit Sornlaksup	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWWWW

Fajing Sun - Koki Matsuda: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide