Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: MATSUYAMA (JAPAN), HARD - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 10 November 2023, Friday


	Bu Yunchaokete		Luca Nardi

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.55
	2.25	1.55	Watch
	2.34	1.64
	2.4	1.62
	2.25	1.57
	2.4	1.54	Watch
	2.43	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.18)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bu Yunchaokete
40.4%

Luca Nardi
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bu Yunchaokete has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bu Yunchaokete than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bu Yunchaokete, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Nardi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	0%	45%

Bu Yunchaokete - Luca Nardi Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Yunchaokete will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Nardi will win (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yunchaokete: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Yunchaokete is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Nardi is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nardi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bu Yunchaokete
ATP Challenger
07.11.23	Bu Yunchaokete - Dane Sweeny	2:1 ✺
06.11.23	Bu Yunchaokete - Menelaos Efstathiou	2:1 ✺
21.10.23	James Duckworth - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
20.10.23	Bu Yunchaokete - Yan Bai	2:0 ✺
18.10.23	Bu Yunchaokete - Alibek Kachmazov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWW
- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
07.11.23	James McCabe - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
06.11.23	Seong Chan Hong - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
23.10.23	Liam Broady - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
ATP Antwerp
17.10.23	Luca Nardi - Dominic Thiem	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.10.23	Joris De Loore - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WWLLL

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