Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Christian Garin

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.18	1.65	Watch
	2.15	1.6	Watch
	2.19	1.63
			Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.52	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.58)	1.63 ↓ (2.37)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
42.1%

Christian Garin
57.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Christian Garin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Christian Garin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 7 - 20%). Garin will win (votes: 28 - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 66.7% – 93.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Christian Garin will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 56. Garin is ranked ATP: 110.

Ugo Carabelli is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Garin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Marcos Giron - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
27.06.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
26.06.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Mallorca
23.06.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Ethan Quinn	0:2 ✺
ATP London
17.06.25	Reilly Opelka - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Christian Garin
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Christian Garin - Arthur Rinderknech	2:3 ✺
30.06.25	Christian Garin - Chris Rodesch	3:0 ✺
26.06.25	Christian Garin - Giulio Zeppieri	2:3 ✺
25.06.25	Christian Garin - Hady Habib	2:0 ✺
23.06.25	Christian Garin - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWW

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