Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Buenos Aires, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 2


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.49	Watch
	2.67	1.54
	3.28	1.32	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.61	1.52	Watch
	2.54	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.1)	1.48 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
35.4%

Sebastian Baez
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Baez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Camilo Ugo Carabelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sebastian Baez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 47. Baez is ranked ATP: 34.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 1.

Ugo Carabelli has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Baez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Baez is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hugo Dellien	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	1:3 ✺
19.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Sebastian Baez	2:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
16.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
26.06.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	1:2
ATP Hamburg
20.05.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2
ATP Santiago
01.03.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0
ATP Challenger
19.03.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	0:2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide