Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bastad, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Bastad 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	21:00	beIN Sports 1
Czech Republic	13:00	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	13:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	14:00	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	13:00	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	13:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
United Kingdom	12:00	Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports+


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Jesper De Jong

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.72	Watch
	2.05	1.75	Watch
	2.06	1.85
	2.08	1.76	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.04	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.83)	1.76 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
45.9%

Jesper De Jong
54.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Jesper De Jong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.2%	0%	47.8%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 11 - 50%). De Jong will win (votes: 11 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 29.1% – 70.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Ugo Carabelli (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 7 - 77.8%). De Jong (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 59. De Jong is ranked ATP: 106.

Recent performances by Ugo Carabelli have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

De Jong is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

De Jong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Bastad
18.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Marcos Giron - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
27.06.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLL
- Jesper De Jong
ATP Bastad
18.07.25	Jesper De Jong - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Vit Kopriva - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
14.07.25	William Rejchtman Vinciguerra - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Jesper De Jong	3:1 ✺
01.07.25	Jesper De Jong - Christopher Eubanks	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.10.24	Jesper De Jong - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2
ATP Australian Open
11.01.24	Jesper De Jong - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
ATP Challenger
19.01.23	Jesper De Jong - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2
12.01.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2
25.05.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	2:0

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