Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday


	Carlo Alberto Caniato		Tom Gentzsch

	1	2
	1.95	1.75
	1.96	1.76
	1.97	1.74	Watch
	1.99	1.81
	1.95	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.02)	1.76 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato
47.3%

Tom Gentzsch
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlo Alberto Caniato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Tom Gentzsch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlo Alberto Caniato that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tom Gentzsch than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tom Gentzsch could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Carlo Alberto Caniato - Tom Gentzsch Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Caniato will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Gentzsch will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caniato: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Caniato is ranked ATP: 386., and Gentzsch is ranked ATP: 162..

Caniato arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Performances by Gentzsch have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Caniato may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Tom Gentzsch - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.3%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Lorenzo Berto	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Mika Brunold - Carlo Alberto Caniato	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Izan Almazan Valiente	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWW
- Tom Gentzsch
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Tom Gentzsch	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Tom Gentzsch - Luka Mikrut	1:2 ✺
16.09.26	Tom Gentzsch - Martin Krumich	2:0 ✺
14.09.26	Tom Gentzsch - Alan Wazny	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Massimo Giunta - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWL

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