Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open (Australia), hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 15 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
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Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max


	Casper Ruud		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.78	2
	1.74	2.11	Watch
	1.75	2.07	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.79	2.15	Watch
	1.74	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.69)	2.09 ↓ (2.21)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
54.4%

Jakub Mensik
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24%	0%	76%

Casper Ruud - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 12 - 24.5%). Mensik will win (votes: 37 - 75.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 63.5% – 87.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 6. Mensik is ranked ATP: 48.

Ruud is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Mensik is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ruud could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ruud won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Australian Open
11.01.25	Casper Ruud - Jaume Munar	3:2 ✺
ATP United Cup
30.12.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
28.12.24	Tomas Machac - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
Exhibition World Tennis League
21.12.24	Sumit Nagal - Casper Ruud	0:1 ✺
19.12.24	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Casper Ruud	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWW?
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Australian Open
12.01.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Jakub Mensik	1:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
09.01.25	Jakub Mensik - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
08.01.25	Ben Shelton - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
07.01.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jakub Mensik	1:2
07.01.25	Alexandre Muller - Jakub Mensik	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
26.05.24	Jakub Mensik - Casper Ruud	Canceled

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