Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Parma, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 June 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Super Tennis


	Daniel Rincon		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	2.10	1.67	Watch
	2.10	1.65
	2.12	1.68
	2.22	1.73
	2.11	1.66	Watch
	2.10	1.67	Watch
	2.06	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.86)	1.68 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Rincon
44.2%

Stefano Napolitano
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Rincon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Rincon's form might have worsened.

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefano Napolitano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Rincon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stefano Napolitano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Daniel Rincon - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Users Predictions: Daniel Rincon will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rincon is ranked ATP: 271. Napolitano is ranked ATP: 245.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Napolitano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Stefano Napolitano - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50.54%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Rincon
ATP Challenger
16.06.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Daniel Rincon	0:2 ✺
11.06.26	Daniel Rincon - Dali Blanch	0:2 ✺
08.06.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Daniel Rincon	0:2 ✺
19.05.26	Dimitar Kuzmanov - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.05.26	Daniel Rincon - Sergi Perez Contri	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLW
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
15.06.26	Franco Agamenone - Stefano Napolitano	1:2 ✺
02.06.26	Tuncay Duran - Stefano Napolitano	Napolitano S. Retired ✺
30.05.26	Edward Winter - Stefano Napolitano	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Philip Henning - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
28.05.26	Alec Beckley - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 W?LWW

Daniel Rincon - Stefano Napolitano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide