Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sintra 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday


	Diogo Marques		Carles Hernandez

	1	2
			Watch
	2.30	1.53	Watch
	2.93	1.36	Watch
	2.66	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.75)	1.43 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diogo Marques
35.2%

Carles Hernandez
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diogo Marques has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Carles Hernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diogo Marques than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Diogo Marques that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carles Hernandez than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carles Hernandez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Diogo Marques - Carles Hernandez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Marques is ranked ATP: 1075. Hernandez is ranked ATP: 912.

Both players are currently in poor form.

Marques may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hernandez is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marques won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Diogo Marques
ITF Tournaments
22.10.25	Sebastian Fanselow - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Diogo Marques - Nino Ehrenschneider	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Diogo Marques - Dimitris Sakellaridis	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Joao Graca - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Manas Manoj Dhamne - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLL
- Carles Hernandez
ITF Tournaments
25.10.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Carles Hernandez	2:0 ✺
22.10.25	Carles Hernandez - Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Carles Hernandez - Ivan Ivanov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Petr Brunclik - Carles Hernandez	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.09.25	Carles Hernandez - Rafael Izquierdo Luque	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
18.09.24	Diogo Marques - Carles Hernandez	2:1

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