Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Rancho Santa Fe, CA, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday


	Elvina Kalieva		Mary Stoiana

	1	2
	2.75	1.41	Watch
	2.75	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2)	1.41 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvina Kalieva
33.8%

Mary Stoiana
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvina Kalieva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elvina Kalieva's form might have worsened.

Mary Stoiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mary Stoiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elvina Kalieva than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elvina Kalieva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mary Stoiana than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mary Stoiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Kalieva is ranked WTA: 233. Stoiana is ranked WTA: 318.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Kalieva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Stoiana is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elvina Kalieva
ATP Challenger
17.09.25	Elvina Kalieva - Tamara Korpatsch	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Elvina Kalieva - Mariia Nozdrachova	2:0 ✺
09.09.25	Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov - Elvina Kalieva	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.09.25	Caijsa Wilda Hennemann - Elvina Kalieva	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Demi Tran - Elvina Kalieva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LWLLW
- Mary Stoiana
ITF Tournaments
26.09.25	Mary Stoiana - Emina Bektas	Stoiana M. retired ✺
25.09.25	Mary Stoiana - Sahaja Yamalapalli	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Louisa Chirico - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
19.08.25	Shuai Zhang - Mary Stoiana	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.08.25	Ayana Akli - Mary Stoiana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ?WWLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elvina Kalieva
ATP Challenger
08.10.26	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Elvina Kalieva	✺

Elvina Kalieva - Mary Stoiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide