Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon (Portugal), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday


	Emilio Nava		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.3	1.52	Watch
	2.42	1.58
	2.32	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.06	1.64	Watch
	2.3	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.84)	1.56 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emilio Nava
40.5%

Vilius Gaubas
59.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emilio Nava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emilio Nava's form might have worsened.

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vilius Gaubas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emilio Nava, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vilius Gaubas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Emilio Nava - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Nava will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Gaubas will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaubas: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nava is ranked ATP: 190. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 183.

Recent matches Nava is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gaubas has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nava could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Gaubas will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Vilius Gaubas - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emilio Nava
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.24	Rigele Te - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
20.08.24	Emilio Nava - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.08.24	Kyrian Jacquet - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
11.08.24	Emilio Nava - Kevin King	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Emilio Nava - Patrick Schoen	Schoen P. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLW?
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
17.09.24	Vilius Gaubas - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
14.09.24	Duje Ajdukovic - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
13.09.24	Borna Gojo - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.09.24	Vilius Gaubas - Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
22.08.24	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 L?LLL

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