Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 SANTA MARGHERITA DI PULA (ITALY), CLAY - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 29 March 2024, Friday


	Ergi Kirkin		Marcello Serafini

	1	2
	1.62	2.1
	1.61	2.2
	1.67	2.16
	1.67	2.16
	1.62	2.2
	1.65	2.15	Watch
	1.61	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.49)	2.16 ↓ (2.47)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ergi Kirkin
57%

Marcello Serafini
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ergi Kirkin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ergi Kirkin's form might have worsened.

Marcello Serafini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marcello Serafini's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ergi Kirkin than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ergi Kirkin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcello Serafini than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marcello Serafini, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Now both players are in good shape.

Kirkin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Kirkin will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ergi Kirkin
ITF Tournaments
28.03.24	Ergi Kirkin - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
26.03.24	Ergi Kirkin - Denis Constantin Spiridon	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.03.24	Ergi Kirkin - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
13.03.24	Ergi Kirkin - Illya Marchenko	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.03.24	Adria Soriano Barrera - Ergi Kirkin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWW
- Marcello Serafini
ITF Tournaments
28.03.24	Milan Markovits - Marcello Serafini	0:2 ✺
26.03.24	Giuseppe Tresca - Marcello Serafini	0:2 ✺
16.03.24	Marcello Serafini - Mats Rosenkranz	1:2 ✺
15.03.24	Anton Matusevich - Marcello Serafini	0:2 ✺
14.03.24	Patrick Zahraj - Marcello Serafini	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWW

Ergi Kirkin - Marcello Serafini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide