Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	Ezequiel Monferrer		Samuel Heredia

	1	2
			Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.25	1.58	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	2.73	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.75)	1.45 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ezequiel Monferrer
35.5%

Samuel Heredia
64.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

69.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ezequiel Monferrer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Samuel Heredia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ezequiel Monferrer than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ezequiel Monferrer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samuel Heredia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Samuel Heredia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Monferrer is ranked ATP: 1030. Heredia is ranked ATP: 718.

Recent performances by Monferrer have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Heredia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Monferrer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ezequiel Monferrer
ITF Tournaments
18.03.26	Ezequiel Monferrer - Ryan Fishback	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Bruno Fernandez - Ezequiel Monferrer	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Ezequiel Monferrer - Enzo Rimoli	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Ezequiel Monferrer - Diego Dedura-Palomero	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Valentin Guadagno - Ezequiel Monferrer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW
- Samuel Heredia
ATP Challenger
05.04.26	Alafia Ayeni - Samuel Heredia	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Maxwell McKennon - Samuel Heredia	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Preston Brown - Samuel Heredia	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Franco Roncadelli - Samuel Heredia	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Samuel Heredia - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL

Ezequiel Monferrer - Samuel Heredia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide