Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Federico Arnaboldi		Alex Knaff

	1	2
			Watch
	1.61	2.18	Watch
	1.49	2.47	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.65	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.57)	2.25 ↓ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Arnaboldi
58.8%

Alex Knaff
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Alex Knaff has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Federico Arnaboldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Knaff than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex Knaff, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Federico Arnaboldi - Alex Knaff Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Arnaboldi will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Knaff will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaboldi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Knaff (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 397. Knaff is ranked ATP: 684.

Arnaboldi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Knaff is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arnaboldi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Arnaboldi might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Arnaboldi
ITF Tournaments
19.02.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Gabriele Crivellaro	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.02.26	Ivan Gakhov - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
27.01.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Marvin Moeller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLW
- Alex Knaff
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Oskari Paldanius - Alex Knaff	2:1 ✺
18.02.26	Peter Alam - Alex Knaff	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Calvin Mueller - Alex Knaff	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
08.02.26	Alex Knaff - Oleksii Krutykh	Canceled ✺
07.02.26	Alex Knaff - Vladyslav Orlov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWW?W

Federico Arnaboldi - Alex Knaff: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide